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#88916 by CraigMaxim
Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:33 pm
Tuesday's Suburban Vote Swing
Even a five-point shift would mean big Democratic losses in 2010.

By KARL ROVE

Tuesday's elections should put a scare into red state Democrats—and a few blue state ones, too.


Barack Obama was said to have redrawn the electoral map by winning Virginia last year with 53% of the vote. On Tuesday, Republican Bob McDonnell flipped the state back to the GOP, winning his election for governor with 59% of the vote. Mr. Obama carried New Jersey easily last year with 57% of the vote. This year, despite being outspent 3-to-1, Republican Chris Christie ousted Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine there by 49% to 45%. Mr. Obama carried Pennsylvania last year by 10 points. On Tuesday, Republican Judge Joan Orie Melvin was elected to the state's Supreme Court by 53% to 47%, leading a GOP sweep of six of seven statewide contests.


The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania.


Even a five-point swing in 2010 could bring a tidal wave of change. Today, Democrats enjoy 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans a mere 40. Had there been a five-point swing away from Democrats last fall, the party would have started this year with 54 seats and the Republicans 46.


A five-point shift in 2006 would have left the GOP in control of the House. In 2008, a five-point shift would have produced a Democratic loss of six House seats rather than a gain of 21. It would also have put John McCain into the White House with 279 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama's 259.


Looking ahead, the bad news for Democrats is that the legislation that helped lead to the collapse of support for their party on Tuesday could yet inflict more pain on those foolish enough to support it. The health-care bill House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to vote on this week could sink an entire fleet of Democratic boats in 2010.


For starters, the bill is a lot more expensive than advertised. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) pegs its cost at $1.055 trillion over 10 years, not the $894 billion Mrs. Pelosi claims. Politico reports that "the legislation is projected to create deficits over the second five years" by front-loading revenue and benefit cuts and back-loading costs. The real cost, according to a Republican House Budget Committee report, could be $2.4 trillion for its first decade of operation.


In its first 10 years, the bill calls for $572 billion in new taxes (including a 5.4% income surtax on anyone making more than $500,000 a year), and $426 billion in Medicare and Medicaid cuts, which will hurt seniors and the poor and could lead to rationing of care.


The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation reported recently that the House's legislation will whack small businesses because they would pay $153.5 billion of the surtax. Small businesses unable to provide health coverage to their workers would also pay up to 8% in new payroll taxes. This would cost them $135 billion more over the next decade, thereby diminishing their ability to create jobs.


In the House bill there is a $2 billion tax on those who already have health insurance, $20 billion in taxes on medical devices, $8 billion in taxes on anyone who buys over-the-counter drugs with money from their health-savings accounts, and $140 billion in higher taxes on drugs.


Mrs. Pelosi's bill will drive up premiums. A family of four with an income of $78,000 would pay $13,800 for insurance a year by 2016, according to CBO. Their tab would average $11,000 without the bill.


Every American would be required to buy health insurance or be fined up to 2.5% of their income.


The CBO estimates the public option will have higher premiums than private plans, even though it will get a $2 billion, interest-free start-up loan from the government. The public option is also likely to mimic Medicare, which denies reimbursement claims at almost twice the rate of private insurers, according to the American Medical Association's 2008 "National Health Insurer Report Card."


The bill dumps $34 billion onto already strained state budgets by pushing more of the working poor off private insurance and into Medicaid. There's no proof of citizenship required for the public option, so illegal aliens could get subsidies. And the legislation doesn't close the door to using taxpayer funds on abortion.


Younger people with healthier lifestyles would subsidize older, sicker Americans as insurance companies lose flexibility to charge lower prices for healthier habits.


Every page of the 1,990 bill seems to contain a landmine that could explode on Democrats.


Tuesday's results were the first sign that voters are revolting against runaway spending and government expansion. But Democrat likely ain't seen nothin' yet if they try to ram through health-care reform. There is nothing in the House bill that would do anything to reverse the voter trend we saw this week.


Mr. Rove is the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.

#88919 by J-HALEY
Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:59 pm
Thank God. A recession is a bad time to raise taxes on anyone. The rich and corps. will do just like they did in the 80's and air on the side of caution which means 0 spending and 0 job growth.

#88921 by ColorsFade
Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:05 pm
Karl Rove... The Antichrist.

I'm not sure I can think of anything more ironic that Christians who would put any stock in anything Karl Rove says. That man is pure unadulterated evil.

#88922 by Dessalines
Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:10 pm
CraigMaxim,

In the end, it will be all about the economy my friend and all of us should wish for positive news on that front. I see that retail sales were up strong for the second month running, see the link to the article below.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/06/busin ... op.html?hp

That's not to say that I think things are just super but the general ecomnomic news is going in the right direction. Unemployment is the final frontier in that equation and though it is still going up, the rate of increase has slowed quite a bit since 600,000 million in the first quarter of this year.

On the political side of the equation, what would we expect Karl Rove and Michael Steele to say?

I used to live on Long Island, N.Y. and I understand New Jersey fairly well as my wife's father was from there till he died. Christie ran to the center and his major issue was property tax abatement. One problem, the State does not raise or lower property taxes, localities do. So for Christie to help with property taxes, he has to come up with some money for local aid. A lot of money. Where will that come from? Nowhere,. The promises he made cannot be kept. However, dissatisfaction with Corzine formerly of Goldman Sachs, led voters to vote against him as his performance was also sub-standard over four years. Not much to do with Obama there. Exit poling in New Jersey indicated strong support for the president.

In Virginia, a Pat Robertson conservative, again ran to the center against a weak opponent, talking about cutting taxes while at the same time doing something about transportation, which is a major issue in Northern Virginia. Those goals are mutually exclusive. Yuo can't lower taxes and launch a major transportation restructuring. Promises, promises.

The race for the house seat in upstate New York, the only federal race of the three went democratic for the first time since 1872, due to national conservatives coming in and dissing the locally chosen republican whom they deemed not ideologically pure enough. Talk about politcal correctness!!!! I see that as democrats +1 republicans 0.

You've read the spin but what's the reality? Nothing really changed at the federal level.

One final point, this was an OFF OFF year election and in those kinds of elections, local issues bring out older more conservative voters, as younger voters could care less who get elected dog catcher.

Just sayin....

#88927 by Kramerguy
Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:41 pm
In the end,

Most americans lose

Only the top 3% wealthiest americans will gain anything.

political party means nothing anymore, except that people are still successfully being manipulated.

#88928 by philbymon
Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:42 pm
Anything written or spoken by Karl Rove is worthless by default.

I doubt that the latest off-yr elections have any of the republicrats concerned. All it shows is that they are still in control, & will remain so unless & until someone outside the evil twin-headed party machine gets elected.

For all our hope in the last election, nothing has changed. A considerable quantity of our citizenry is still holding onto 2nd class citizen status. Our jobs are still being exported. Our health care system is still killing us. Our gov't is still in the control of the elite corporate-funded puppets of the few. Competition still does not exist in our marketplace. Our infrastructure is still failing. Our taxes go on unabated for ppl who cannot afford them. Our medical community is still passing out poisons as medicine. Our food conglomerates are still selling us poisoned foods.

No one has even tried to come up with a satisfactory solution to any of these problems, but I am not surprized. If they did, they would be turning their backs on the forces that made them.

#88931 by CraigMaxim
Thu Nov 05, 2009 5:07 pm
ColorsFade wrote:Karl Rove... The Antichrist.



Ha ha... Karl Rove is not the Antichrist.

But he would probably be willing to share polling data with him...

;-)

.

#88936 by Rev Mike
Thu Nov 05, 2009 5:17 pm
What was missing on Tuesday was the African American and Hispanic vote, which will return for 2012's re-election of Obama...but none of it will really matter when the truth is revealed.

#88937 by Kramerguy
Thu Nov 05, 2009 5:24 pm
philbymon wrote:Anything written or spoken by Karl Rove is worthless by default.

I doubt that the latest off-yr elections have any of the republicrats concerned. All it shows is that they are still in control, & will remain so unless & until someone outside the evil twin-headed party machine gets elected.

For all our hope in the last election, nothing has changed. A considerable quantity of our citizenry is still holding onto 2nd class citizen status. Our jobs are still being exported. Our health care system is still killing us. Our gov't is still in the control of the elite corporate-funded puppets of the few. Competition still does not exist in our marketplace. Our infrastructure is still failing. Our taxes go on unabated for ppl who cannot afford them. Our medical community is still passing out poisons as medicine. Our food conglomerates are still selling us poisoned foods.

No one has even tried to come up with a satisfactory solution to any of these problems, but I am not surprized. If they did, they would be turning their backs on the forces that made them.


couldn't have said it better myself.

#89224 by fisherman bob
Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:11 am
About every four to eight years Americans switch from one party to another. It's the same old sh*t. What I'm hoping and praying for is a third party that will make the DEms and Reps obsolete. Maybe we need to bring back the Whig party...

#89260 by philbymon
Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:14 pm
Howzabout the Stag Party (mostly bored married guys), or the Bachelor(ette) Party (mostly "alternative" lifestylers who cannot by law get married), or the Pinata Party (why not let the illegals vote? they can do everything else), or the Pot Party (obvious, with a nod to Rev Mike)...

#89522 by philbymon
Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:06 am
You know what bugs me the most about voting in this country?

They won't let you buy alcoholoc beverages on election day until after the polls close!

I really feel the need for them when I see the choices I'm offered, but if they simply MUST make me vote in a sober state of mind, then why not vote on a frikken Sunday, when many states have Blue Laws in effect anyway? Why do they find it so necessary to ruinate TWO days of any given week? Just another stupid American way of doing things!

I'd write my congressman on this issue if I thought he could read...

#89573 by philbymon
Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:24 pm
Pat Paulson! THAT's the name I was trying to remember - anyone remember him? He was a comedian who "ran" for pres on the Stag Party ticket in '68 & '72. (STAG = Straight Talking Americam Gov't) He was on The Smother Bros Show for awhile. Damned funny man. I didn't know he was at it through all the elections until his death in '97.

http://www.paulsen.com/pat/

Okay...reminiscing time is over for me...gotta get back to today...

#89577 by ANGELSSHOTGUN
Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:57 pm
Desalines, its a good thing you left N.Y. Your thinking has left 13 stores empty out of 22 in the small community of Kings Park. Store fronts and businesses are shutting down and clearing OUT. People are being put out of jobs.
N.Y. is scrambling to find new ways to increase revenue because the tax base has shrunk so much. Try these, Business now has to pay the state for the RIGHT to collect SALES TAX, Retroactive payroll tax support mass transit,salt water fishing license,new water bottle deposit,confiscation of any unreturned deposits, Oh man the list goes on and on. N.Y. is going under just like jersey and it figures a liberal extremist like you would bail to safe haven like Mass.
Dont feel left out,,, Mass aint far behind.

#89581 by philbymon
Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:28 pm
It ain't just taxes causing this trend, Glen.

Look at how our banking industry is bilking us in new ways. They actually charge a biz to make deposits! They charge you if you don't have an acct with them, yet wish to cash a check written on their guarantee! BB&T in these parts is notorious for that. I don't think it should be legal for any bank to charge a fee for cashing a check written on their guarantee, either. Ppl are losing the right to go next door to another bank for better service, cuz ALL the banks are starting to steal from us in these & other various ways.

Of course, you're absolutely 100% right about retroactive taxes. They should be ignored, if at all possible, by ALL Americans! It's way past time for us to start banding together & saying "NO" to the unfair practices of our gov'ts AND our corporations!

There should be, imho, NO disposable bottles in our country, &, yeah, I think a fed law IS needed yto assure us of that. We also need to address the packaging industry, for their contributions to our polluted state, & there should be impact fees for any corp who contributes to our landfills, with a sliding scale on the impact of the materials produced. Then, perhaps they would work a lil harder to introduce "greeener" stuff onto our shelves. Of course, we should also quadruple impact fees for imports, to encourage other countries to join us in making this a less polluted planet over all.

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