General Music Chat

From the dawn of the digital era in 1999, with the introduction of NAPSTER, the U.S. recording industry has seen a cataclysmic decline in income, from $14.5 billion at its peak to less than $7 billion in 2013 (accounting for inflation, a decline of over 65%).

In the last three years, however, income has not decreased as much as in previous years. Music streaming services have started to catch on with consumers, particularly Spotify, which pays approximately 60% of its gross income for recorded music (and another 10.5% for songs). Pandora, the leading internet radio company in the U.S., now has over 70 million active users and pays over half of its gross income for recorded music.

The question is: Will streaming help the record business recover its past financial glory? I think not.


Any prophets or prognosticators care to make your predictions of the future?



http://www.billboard.com/articles/busin ... -streaming





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The fractions of a penny per play paid out in royalties for streamed music won't get the 'record companies' or artists rich, although I have read stories about people (and not the "big bands") making decent income by targeting audiences with songs that come up in their searches (songs about toilets, for example!)

A majority of people are streaming free services (Pandora, for example - you only have ot pay to avoid commercials or to get more customizable features) and then you've got 'pirates' who are capturing those streams and offering them to downloaders free. So the income that's "shared" by these streaming services is nowhere near what record/CD sales once were. To get your music on these streaming services, you have to pay first, too. And these payments are not included in the 'shared income'.

On another forum I'm on a college teacher related a story of one of his classes where he asked how many had 'purchased a CD' in the past month - 1 student raised his hand; then he asked how many had downloaded music in the past month - they all raised their hands; then he asked how many had paid for any music downloads in the past month - no one raised their hands.

The future? Other than the top 1000 (worldwide) artists/bands, not many musicians will get past a 'comfortable' lifestyle from their music income - playing gigs will continue to be their main income.

A trend I am noticing is the Youtube trend of making money not so much off of your music, but off of the ads on the video. I've read a statistic that over 65% of Youtube traffic is towards music (don't know how reliable it was.) So this might be a new means of indirectly making money off of stuff. Plus with Youtube copyright enforcement, it is easier to keep your stuff yours as long as you have the ability to make claims against other accounts.

Some bands that I really respect have dedicated subscribers on that webpage and have noted it's a good way to stay connected to your fan base when not actively touring/performing. some "indie" bands that I listen to have subscription numbers past the 30K mark. Think about that for a second, that's a nice sized town's worth of population that are following you and maybe watching a few videos at a time.

I have a project that is in the works that we are going to try this technique with in the following year.

The largest share of money is in live concerts, yes, but getting people to attend depends on making music that people want. That process starts with good writing skills (with all due respect to cover bands) and creating a brand that no one else can offer.

So the importance of being the copyright owner hasn't diminished, but I find that is the most critical area most artists are lacking in (including me though I've been studying for years now). One might think it doesn't matter until your songs are popular, but by then you would have royalties coming in if you had set up the publishing correctly. There's no reason you can't be learning about publishing at the same time you're starting to record your original music.

Publishing rights are the only thing you have to bargain with when signing to a label (if they matter anymore). Historically, unknown artists have no leverage and usually ends up giving 100% of publishing away in exchange for the publicity, funding, and promotion a label will give, allowing for the start of a career of concerts that people will attend.

Artists don't usually understand that the label isn't going to do anything for you but put the record out and possibly advertise it in a way that helps you get "live" work. But it's your job to figure out how to take advantage of anything they do. Many one-hit wonders don't figure this out until it's too late and they've lost the initial momentum of label promotion.

So the bottom line is that it has ALWAYS been about pleasing the audience in front of you. The biggest difference is that an indie can put together a product that is as high-quality as a major label these days, if they take it seriously enough.

But that is only the beginning step. Once you've got a product to sell, you have the job of selling it. The good news is an indie can make more money with sales of 10,000 units than they would selling 100,000 on a label that owns their publishing.

The biggest obstacle to indie success is other musicians, imo. Depending on a band is a guarantee of failure, sooner or later, because the enormous expense of taking a band on the road will hinder making enough for everyone to pay the bills at home.

However, another new development is that the internet has opened a floodgate of licensing for video/film. Television programming is exploding with so many broadcasting networks and channels on your T.V.

What used to only air in local markets of the USA is now available to people in India, or Russia, or China, or wherever (and vice versa), so that trend will continue to expand allowing songwriters/artists new avenues of income that weren't available in the past. Not mention video games, the proliferation of internet radio, blogs, etc.

So my prediction for the biz in 5 years is that (indie) bands won't last as long, but solo artists will be doing well, and will be more educated on exploiting publishing.

Yod

"...bands won't last as long..."

Dude, most bands don't last long enough to rehearse up a complete show (or the 2-5 set barroom cover scene).

I see your point though - most bands have one or two guys who are the motivators, songwriters and singers. It would be wise for prospective artists to be able to do a little more than play rhythm guitar or bass.

Talbot

Bob

If you are successful, it will because you are taking that attitude.

How many times have we heard bullshit from people telling us 'oh you can't do that' or 'that won't sell,' 'It's not commercial enough,' etc. I know I'm sick of it.

I hope you knock it out of the park.

Talbot

Agreed Mike and Bob

There are places around America where you "could" get a house gig and make a decent living, but yea, overall it's impossible to do well locally over time so why not make art that pleases you?

Sting once said "Making music is it's own reward" and that is the attitude that will make you a happy artist, no matter how much it pays currently.

And another thing to consider is that it takes longer for an original artist to penetrate the world these days. I remember how it took 5 years for "Dream On" by Aerosmith to become a hit, though they were on a major label with a brilliant Producer. They put that song on their first album, but (relatively) no one knew who they were until their 3rd album.

"Dream On" would have been judged as a bust during those first 4 years. It was as great a song then as it was when people finally noticed it.

I think the music biz has had an amazing run over the last 50 years but is now banging the bottom. It has lost it's way in the face of digital file sharing and internet access but over time it is sure to rally again. This ebb and flow in music has gone on for hundreds of years. Right now there are no filters and the signal to noise ratio is at a very low point. Great musicians are still out there but getting lost in the din of lowest common denominators.

I am beginning to see some bright spots with local artists and local shows being promoted and small 4000 seat auditoriums being filled to capacity with quality acts putting on outstanding shows. Local music in smaller venues is a great experience and I hope to see this grow and branch out over time. A healthy sign of better days to come.